Futurecast by Robert Shapiro

Futurecast

Over the past few years a number of books have been released which attempt to predict future events in one way or another. Perhaps it is the coming of the Mayan prediction of the end of the world in 2012, or simply a tumultuous time in human history, but Futurecast by Robert Shapiro is written in that vein and looks at the world from a political and economic point of view.

Shapiro's work is generally written and grouped in a few broad categories. The overarching theme is that the world over the next one hundred years will continue to be dominated both economically and militarily by the United States. While the United States faces challenges, specifically when it comes to immigration and the cost of health care, the country's leaders are already working to combat these issues as best as they can. Other countries face more difficult transitions, such as China which faces a serious demographic crisis in that the three hundred million people living in the eastern portion of the country around Shanghai and Beijing are incredibly wealthy when compared to the other portions of the country in which many people have more in common with Sub Saharan African than New York, London or Tokyo. Shapiro goes so far as to predict the fragmentation of China within the next twenty years as the government in Beijing struggles to find balance between competing goals in separate parts of the country.

I found the most interesting part of the novel to be about demographics and the challenges these struggling demographics will pose for countries as time goes forward. It's interesting to note that Russia will be losing at least fifty million young men from the workforce over the next forty years and will not be able to have a military and police force the same size that they do currently.

Overall Futurecase is an interesting look at how one man views the future. It's not altogether positive, but it does provide a nice read and look into some of the serious issues of our time including health care, the environment and globalization.

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